As this cycle becomes long in the tooth, many allocators are evaluating whether their portfolios may be underweight managers that perform well during turbulent market environments. 

Last year, we wrote a piece evaluating hedge funds’ performance persistence and its implications on allocators’ ability to select managers. Our conclusion was straightforward: individual hedge fund manager outperformance is not persistent relative to the overall Hedge Fund index. Therefore, a randomly selected portfolio of funds would perform as well as an allocators’.

Hedge Fund performance in the second quarter was modestly positive across most hedge fund strategies, with Managed Futures and Global Macro managers notably delivering weak returns as market and economic trends oscillated quickly from March to April to May.

Hedge Fund performance in the first quarter was the best in more than 3 years, driven by an unusual combination of…

One of the hardest things to do in investment management is figure out if outcomes are a function of luck or skill…

On October 25, 2022 the yield curve flipped to inverted and has remained so for the nearly 500 days since…

Despite prognostications and market pricing of a near certain recession at the start of 2023, the US economy not only avoided a downturn, it thrived…

US stocks outperformance of pretty much everything returned again in 2023…

Published by Bruce McNevin on Nov 27, 2023 With conflicting macroeconomic indicators and diverging expert opinions, we reviewed the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession indicators